Republicans outnumber Dems in Bucks, but in other ways remain underdogs
Bucks County flipped red last June, with Republican residents outnumbering Democrats for the first time in well over a decade. Republicans now enjoy a nearly 10,000-voter advantage — not a forbidding one in a county of almost 480,000 voters, but nontrivial. In November, a greater number of Bucks would vote Republican than Democratic for president for the first time since 1988. Local Republicans crushed a massive challenge.
But with this year’s elections, they could face a bigger one. Five county row offices, four county judgeships, and countless municipal roles are at stake this fall. And so far this year, the GOP finds itself underwater in terms of both turnout and fundraising.
The May primary gave the county parties the only pre-general election snapshot of turnout readiness they’ll see, but it showed Democrats getting a formidable jump on their foes. District attorney candidate Joe Khan, a former Bucks solicitor, received 14,333 more votes from his fellow Democrats than his incumbent opponent Jennifer Schorn got from Republicans. And that was the smallest gap in the row office totals, with other disparities reaching roughly 15,000 votes. The judge primaries demonstrated a similar Democratic edge.
Earlier, this would have looked unusual in a municipal election year with no contests for president, Congress, governor, or state legislators. Republicans previously dominated in these “off-year” battles; that’s why Philadelphia’s collar counties could still sometimes elect GOP row officers and judges well after their ability to shore up Republican White House contenders faded at the turn of the century.
Now local elections are often a struggle for suburban Republicans regionally and elsewhere. Donald Trump’s populism sparked a surge in Republican voting among the less affluent along with a decline in support among the well heeled and politically knowledgable. This has proved to be a boon during presidential years — but a burden in other ones.
“The longstanding Republican turnout advantage in off-year and midterm elections has vanished and now Democrats have the upper hand in these election cycles,” Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion Director Christopher Borick told The Independence. “It’s largely the product of the movement of voters in higher socioeconomic categories towards the Democrats and voters in lower socioeconomic categories moving towards the GOP. Higher educated and wealthier voters turn out more in non-presidential years and those voters now lean more Democratic. Combined with the current political environment, this shift is perilous for the Republicans in the next few years.”
It’s hard to say how much that environment may have changed in the three months since the primary. On May 20, Trump’s national job approval averaged at -1.8%, a figure that has since swelled to -4.9%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator. Still, Pennsylvania-specific data might discourage Republicans a bit less: Trump’s approval in the commonwealth is now -3%, one-third as bad as it was on primary election day, according to Civiqs polling.
Republican political consultant and Bucks County native Christopher Nicholas cautions against taking turnout and polling data from the primary as a predictor of the parties’ general election performance.
“I don’t generally put a lot of stock into comparing turnout in the two primaries and then forecasting that into the fall,” he said.
He recalled that while Bucks Republicans’ first local election of Trump in 2017 was rough — District Attorney Matt Weintraub was the only Republican row office candidate to win — the GOP made a comeback four years later. In 2021, Republicans elected Sheriff Fred Harran, Prothonotary Coleen Christian, Recorder of Deeds Dan McPhillips, and Controller Pamela Van Blunk, all of whom are vying for reelection this year.
“It will be interesting to see how much 2025 is like or different from 2017,” Nicholas said. “We’re in a different place as a country.”
Schorn likewise doubts May’s turnout numbers will mean anything in November. She says she has observed a rise in awareness about the consequences of the district attorney’s race and other elections this year.
“I can honestly see quite a different outcome in the fall,” she said. “I’ve been on the trail for quite some time now and the feedback I get is great. People are committed to making sure that Bucks County remains the safe county and the fair county that it presently is.”
She finds public concern especially pronounced in her race, viewing her opponent Khan as the kind of progressive prosecutor who would fail to prioritize victims and vulnerable residents. Khan, who has worked as a prosecutor in Philadelphia and pursued an unsuccessful run for state attorney general last year, has received financial support from avowed socialist state Senator Nikil Saval (D-Philadelphia) and has backed leftist Philadelphia City Councilwoman Jamie Gauthier. Both are strong allies of Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who is known nationwide for laxness about the law and hostility toward the police.
“I know that there were a number of people that came up to volunteers working the polls in the primary indicating that they’re going to support me; they were unable to vote for me in the primary because they weren’t registered as the same party,” she said. “And I also know that the people in my party know what’s at stake as well. So I feel very optimistic but I also know that I can’t take anything for granted and I’ve got to continue to get the word out how critical this vote is.”
Schorn said her first priority in that regard is doing her job as a prosecutor, citing her office’s Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force, which has overseen arrests of numerous child predators.
After leaving the county solicitor’s office two years ago, Khan has worked at the politically connected Curtin & Heefner law firm. They did not return an email requesting comment.
Democratic dollars pile up
As of the last reporting period ending in June, Schorn’s campaign had outraised Khan’s by about $48,000. Most of her fellow Republican row officers now seeking reelection have also surpassed their opponents in fundraising so far this year. But county Republicans still have catching up to do when it comes to finance.
The two political parties undertake most of the local political fundraising, and the Bucks County Democratic Committee had $150,000 as of June 9, the most recent date at which data were available, while the Bucks County Republican Committee had only $96,000. Considering that Bucks United (a committee supporting Democrats for row offices) had $206,215, county Democrats enjoy a more than $260,000 fundraising edge.
That advantage could, of course, be greater; in 2023, Bucks Democrats took in $595,000 more than the Republicans did. Neither Bucks political party returned a request for comment about how their endeavors this year are going.
Among row office hopefuls, sheriff candidate Danny Ceisler is the only Democrat whose campaign presently has a larger reported war chest than his opponent’s, besting Harran by about $10,000 as of mid-June. He described the primary turnout as “very encouraging” but said neither that nor any other favorable indicator should lull him and his fellow Democrats into complacency.
“Countywide elections in Bucks elections are always competitive, and this one won’t be any different,” he said. “We are not taking a single vote for granted and will be working as hard as we can through election day to connect with the people we plan to protect and serve.”
He expects the parties’ monetary gap to tighten.
“History has shown us that Bucks County Republicans have a reserve of fundraising sources who, when push comes to shove, will write the big checks to get their candidates whatever they need to be competitive,” he said.
Harran said he isn’t unduly optimistic either, though he believes a hard campaign push in the fall will keep him in office.
“You never underestimate your opponent and you never run like you’re ahead; you always run like you’re behind and you’ve got to work full steam ahead,” he said. “We’re going to get our voters out and you’re going to see a big win in November. We’re getting our message out how important this election is.”
Kevin Harley, a Republican political consultant at Harrisburg-based Quantum Communications, said his party compatriots assuming they’re behind is a good move right now since many “rest[ed] on our laurels” after big Pennsylvania GOP wins last year. On the heels of Trump’s return to the White House and Dave McCormick’s ousting three-term Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr., Republicans lost a special state Senate election in Lancaster County in March that few expected the Democrats to win. Harley said that result underscores the low Republican turnout also seen in the primaries two months later.
“Democrats were highly enthusiastic to come out and vote against Republicans,” he said. “You may see some of that again in the fall.”
Harley added that some factors do favor the GOP in Pennsylvania, particularly the grassroots movement to unseat liberal Democratic State Supreme Court Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David N. Wecht who are up for retention elections in November. He said Republicans can augment their chances further by mounting aggressive mail-in ballot campaigns, something they’ve done in recent election cycles despite Trump denouncing mail-in voting as insecure. (The president now hopes to ban the practice by executive order.)
Borick also thinks certain developments spell good news for Republicans over this year and the next, including the Democrats’ “generally bad brand image” and strong fundraising by GOP congressional campaigns. But the drawbacks still outnumber the assets.
“On the whole I think the political headwinds are in the face of Republicans right now,” he said.
Bradley Vasoli is the senior editor of The Independence.
