Republicans need strategic changes before 2027 commissioners campaign

Fifty years ago, when I first actively became involved in political campaigns, there were a few fairly “logical truths” that could be counted on to help pave the path to victory.

1. Register more voters in your political party than your opponent had registered in his party.

2. Be recognized by more voters than your opponent.

3. An incumbent officeholder, almost always, has an advantage on Election Day.

4. Concisely, be able to state what you believe as a candidate in 45 seconds or less.

A quick review of 21st century campaigning in Bucks County indicates that “logical truths” may not be quite as logical as they may have been in 1975.

At the approach of Election Day November 2, 2021, Democrats out-registered Republicans by about 10,000 voters (202,924 to 192,694).   Excluding the district attorney (often an entity unto itself) three out of four County Row Offices (recorder of deeds, prothonotary and coroner) were incumbent Democrats.  

“Logical truths” would suggest a sweeping Democratic victory. The result — Democrat candidates lost all three incumbents, plus the sheriff, district attorney and county judge.

Four years later, November 4, 2025, the Republicans had reversed the registration advantage by virtually the same 10,000 voters (202,257 to 192,416). Now running for reelection as incumbents, the three row officers would be opposed by the same rivals they defeated in 2021.

“Logical truths” would suggest a sweeping Republican victory. The result: Republican candidates lost all three incumbents, plus the sheriff, district attorney and four county judgeships.

There seems to be very little “logic” left in present day campaign “logical truths.” What of value might future candidates and their respective political parties glean from a review of the 2021 and 2025 county elections? At the risk of being accused of charging onto the field after a lost battle and summarily bayoneting the survivors, perhaps one could suggest tomorrow’s election victories are rooted in yesterday’s election missteps:

Change the candidate selection process: “Blackballing of unendorsed candidates from political-party-sponsored “primary election” events must end.

Change candidate preparation: The night he or she is sworn into office must not be the first appearance by a candidate at a public meeting. A “prepared” candidate will have attended, and participated in, numerous public meetings by questioning and challenging incumbent board members.

Change the message to voters: A flurry of 6×9 postcards arriving in voters’ mailboxes three weeks prior to election day that do little more than damn an opponent’s policies but say virtually nothing of what the candidate supports are not likely to generate voter enthusiasm on Election Day.  Voters need to repeatedly hear why they should vote for a candidate, not just why they should vote against his opponent.

Two years from now, with the most influential local office of county commissioner at stake, candidates from both political parties would be wise to rely on much more than “logical truths” if they expect to be successful on Election Day.

The 2027 election clock is ticking.

Former Bucks County Commissioner Andy Warren is the coauthor, with Hal Marcovitz, of Notes on Bucks County: Reflections on Politics in Pennsylvania’s Most Curious and Captivating Collar County and a member of The Bucks County Independence‘s advisory board.