Perry tops PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings, followed by Mackenzie, Bresnahan, Fitzpatrick
It’s been nine months since we published our initial PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House. Our rankings look largely the same, but during that time, the political environment for four Republican incumbents has deteriorated.
For the ninth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. We’ll update our rankings periodically as the cycle progresses.
Our most vulnerable category — Highly Vulnerable — remains empty, though with a worsening environment, it’s conceivable that one or more Republican seats could shift into this category as November approaches.
As was the case nine months ago, four seats sit in the “Vulnerable” category, our second highest, and they remain in the same order. The most vulnerable on our list is four-term Republican Rep. Scott Perry, followed in descending order by fellow Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Brian Fitzpatrick.
There was only one Democrat on our list in our initial ranking — Rep. Chris Deluzio— but we have now moved him down a notch, from “Potentially Vulnerable” to “Minimally Vulnerable,” based on assessments from both parties that he is not a serious target in 2026.
Anyone in the delegation not listed among these five members is currently considered safe for reelection. Our list does not include the open 3rd District, where a competitive Democratic primary is on tap to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans. Harris won 88% of the vote in the district in 2024, making the chance of a partisan flip zero and thus beyond the parameters of our rankings.
Here’s our full rundown. Check back here for updates every few months.
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
No races
VULNERABLE
1. 10th District: Scott Perry (R)
Elected: 2018
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2024 House result: Perry, 50.5%-49.3%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 52.03%-46.82%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+3
Black: 10.7%
Latino: 10.9%
Asian: 5.0%
Median income: $78,636
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 36.3%
Median housing value: $258,900
Poverty rate: 10%
Perry remains No. 1 on our list because he has articulated the most conservative views of the four vulnerable Republicans on our list despite representing a district that went to Donald Trump in 2024 by a modest five points.
Perry chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
In 2024, he defeated Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson by barely more than a percentage point. Stelson, a former Republican, won a six-way primary in 2024 partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV
This year, Stelson is back, with enthusiastic support from Democrats. And she’s amassed an impressive war chest.
In the first quarter of 2026, Stelson outraised Perry, $2.17 million to $1.13 million, and she leads the incumbent in cash on hand, $3.17 million to $2.3 million.
A Democratic-backed poll found Perry’s job approval 11 points under water.
Republicans paint Perry as a survivor, and one who’s managed to improve his fundraising game this cycle. But Democrats will be targeting him aggressively until the end.
2. 7th District: Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Elected: 2024
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2024 House result: Mackenzie, 50.4%-49.4%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 51.07%-47.86%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+1
Black: 5.5%
Latino: 21.3%
Asian: 3.4%
Median income: $79,206
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32.5%
Median housing value: $299,800
Poverty rate: 11.2%
Not much separates the No. 2 and No. 3 slots on our list. What leads us to rank Mackenzie’s seat second has to do with the fundamentals in this swingy district.
Mackenzie, a former state representative, ran slightly behind Trump in 2024 as he ousted three-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild by one percentage point. One factor that elevates Mackenzie’s risk this year is that the district is more than one-fifth Latino, a demographic that has shifted sharply against Trump during his second term.
A countervailing factor that could boost Mackenzie is the unsettled nature of the Democratic primary field, which includes four candidates.
The preliminary frontrunner has been Bob Brooks, the president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association and someone whose blue-collar credentials drew endorsements from such big names as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and Pete Buttigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary in Joe Biden’s administration.
However, some of Brooks’ shine wore off during a recent debate, when some observers found his rhetorical performance underwhelming. And he’s faced criticismfor some controversial social media posts that he’s since apologized for.
The other Democratic candidates are former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, who resigned in protest over the Trump administration’s handling of the case involving New York City Mayor Eric Adams; Carol Obando-Derstine, an engineer, educator, nonprofit executive and first-time candidate who has the backing of Wild; and Northampton County Executive and former Northampton County Council member Lamont McClure.
In the first quarter of 2026, Crosswell led Democrats in fundraising with $483,818, edging Brooks with $436,292. Obando-Derstine raised $111,283 while McClure raised $20,000. Mackenzie raised $906,926.
In cash on hand, Mackenzie leads with $2.5 million. Croswell leads among Democrats with $715,000, followed by Brooks with $544,000, McClure with $285,000 and Obando-Derstine with $128,000.
The recent Democratic poll found Mackenzie with job approval 14 points under water; nearly one-third were neutral or unsure.
3. 8th District: Rob Bresnahan (R)
Elected: 2024
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2024 House result: Bresnahan, 50.7%-49.1%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 53.85%-45.35%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
Black: 7.1%
Latino: 15.6%
Asian: 2.1%
Median income: $61,140
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 27.1%
Median housing value: $220,800
Poverty rate: 15.3%
Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan, a construction CEO before joining Congress, flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2024, ousting six-term Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in this blue-collar district.
Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan voted for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” the president’s signature tax and spending bill in 2025. But he’s also experienced a growingnumber of negative headlines for his stock trades as a member of Congress, even as he proposed banning lawmakers from trading stocks.
Before voting for Trump’s bill, Bresnahan sold shares of Centene Corp., a health care company that could be hurt by the bill’s policies on Medicaid. This is not an idle issue for his constituents: 27% of district residents rely on Medicaid, Politico reported.
Earlier, in April, Bresnahan traded stocks of companies that could be hit by Trump’s tariffs.
This race fills our No. 3 slot, rather than No. 2, because of the underlying fundamentals of the district. Trump won it in 2024 by almost nine points, and the Latino share of the electorate is about five points smaller than it is in the 7th District.
But Democrats are high on their likely nominee: Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. In the first quarter of 2026, Cognetti raised $1.46 million, outpacing the incumbent, who raised $1.21 million. And Cognetti only trails Bresnahan modestly in cash on hand, $2.2 million to $1.9 million, an impressive showing for a challenger.
4. 1st District: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Elected: 2018
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2024 House result: Fitzpatrick, 56.2%-43.4%
2024 Presidential result: Harris, 49.67%-49.35%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+1
Black: 3.4%
Latino: 6.5%
Asian: 6%
Median income: $108,039
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 44.3%
Median housing value: $447,700
Poverty rate: 6.5%
Fitzpatrick has been a white whale for Democrats: He’s a Republican, but he consistently wins reelection in a district that votes Democratic for president. In 2024, Fitzpatrick was one of only three Republicans to win in districts that backed Kamala Harris over Trump, along with Don Bacon of Nebraska (who has announced his retirement) and Mike Lawler of New York.
Fitzpatrick remains the Republican on our list who’s expected to be be the hardest for Democrats to oust. But for Democrats, the political environment is looking positive.
In the November 2025 elections, Democrats swept five Bucks County offices, including flipping the sheriff and district attorney seats. Notably, Democrat Danny Ceisler ousted incumbent Republican Sheriff Fred Harran by double digits, after Harran had partnered with ICE during Trump’s second term. Democrats also scored sweeping victories in Bucks County school board races.
Democrats have a credentialed candidate for the 2026 race: Bob Harvie, who has been elected twice to the Bucks County Board of Commissioners and has served as its chair. But Harvie’s fundraising has lagged that of other Democratic challengers on our vulnerability list, a notable shortcoming given that Bucks County is in the pricey Philadelphia media market. In cash on hand, Fitzpatrick leads by an order of magnitude, $7.7 million to $604,000.
Fitzpatrick has continued to cater to his district’s moderation; he was one of just two Republicans to vote against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with Thomas Massieof Kentucky. This might help him among crossover voters who backed Harris in 2024.
A Democratic poll found Fitzpatrick leading Harvie, 48%-42%.
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
No races
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
5. 17th District: Chris Deluzio (D)
Shift from Potentially Vulnerable
Elected: 2022
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2024 House result: Deluzio, 53.8%-46.1%
2024 presidential result: Harris, 52.28%-46.77%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+3
Black: 7%
Latino: 2.6%
Asian: 3.1%
Median income: $83,227
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 46.4%
Median housing value: $243,200
Poverty rate: 7.6%
Deluzio won his seat by a six-point margin in 2022, then prevailed by an impressive eight points over GOP state Rep. Rob Mercuri in 2024, running a point and a half ahead of Harris in the district.
In theory, Deluzio’s swingy district could make him vulnerable, but he hasn’t left many openings for Republicans to exploit.
Republicans now have a candidate, Beaver County sheriff Tony Guy, but he reported only $8,000 in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter of 2026. By contrast, Deluzio reported just under $1 million dollars in the bank.
Neither national party is prioritizing this contest, so we’re dropping it a notch on our list.
This piece originally appeared in PoliticsPA.
Louis Jacobson is chief correspondent for PolitiFact.
