CPR: Dems Lead Congressional Battleground Districts By Six Points
The Cook Political Report calls it a “flashing red warning light” for Republican congressional candidates in the fall.
In a poll of districts rated by CPR as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat – districts which President Donald Trump won by an average of two points in 2024 – Democrats hold a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 50-44%
Three of those districts are in Pennsylvania:
- PA-07, Rep. Ryan Mackenzie
- PA-08, Rep. Rob Bresnahan
- PA-10, Rep. Scott Perry
If the poll results held true in November, Democrats would find three of the seats they need to gain majority control of the U.S. House in the Keystone State alone.
Presently, The Cook Political Report has all three Pennsylvania races as Toss Ups. The only seat that appears to be in play at this juncture is PA-01, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. CPR lists his contest as “Likely Republican.”
The poll noted that Democrats have an intensity advantage, shown mostly through this cycle’s special elections where Democratic voters are proving to be more motivated to vote. And the survey showed that as well with Dems holding a 14-point edge over GOP voters in battleground districts who say they are most interested in voting this fall.
In the 36 districts surveyed, Trump’s approval rating is deeply underwater, with just 42% approving and 58% disapproving of his job performance. Driving those weak numbers are independent voters, who give the president a 70% disapproval rating.
The last successful midterm for Democrats was in 2018 when independents moved blue by 12 points. In this poll, Democrats are winning independent voters in the generic ballot by 25 points.
Surely this is because independents like Democrats, right?
Not so fast, my friend.
Almost two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable view of Democrats in Congress, and only 36% say that the party’s ideas and values are “in line” with their own views.
But independent voters see this election as more of a referendum on Trump than as a choice between the two parties. In fact, 63% of independent voters who are currently backing the Democratic candidate say their decision is more about being against what the Republican Party stands for than a show of support for the Democratic Party. More than half of independent voters (60%) say they worry more about a Republican-controlled Congress that fails to “put the brakes on Trump,” versus a Democratic-controlled Congress that will “only focus on impeaching Trump.”
“Our data show that Trump is increasingly a liability for Republicans across the country, creating a more favorable environment for Democrats this November — provided they avoid unforced errors,” said Lindsay Vermeyen, also of Democratic firm New River Strategies.”
“Despite the Democrats’ early advantage on the generic ballot, their party and leadership remain deeply unpopular,” said Republican pollster Greg Strimple of GS Strategy Group. “The Republican path to keeping the majority requires making this election a choice, not a referendum on President Trump.”
This poll of 1,029 likely voters was conducted from April 7-14, 2026, in the 36 House districts that CPR rated as competitive on April 3, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 3.06%.
Steve Ulrich is the managing editor of PoliticsPA, where this article originally appeared.
