Voter numbers, poll create a conundrum in Bucks
Both things can be true.
Perhaps you have heard this phrase before.
A phrase that acknowledges that two seemingly contradictory ideas can coexist simultaneously and be valid.
For example, Bucks County – one of the traditional bellwether counties in the Commonwealth – has recently seen its voter registration numbers switch in favor of the GOP for the first time in recent memory.
And now, a private poll by the Democratic firm Upswing Research & Strategy says that a majority of likely voters in Bucks view President Donald Trump unfavorably.
People are registering Republican while expressing disenchantment with the GOP administration. Both things can be true.
As of late July, Republicans in Bucks County outnumber Democrats by nearly 10,000 registered voters, marking the first time since 2007 that the GOP has a majority.
Republican organizers said the shift comes from Democrats switching their registration to Republican, residents who recently moved to the area who had to update their voter registration to their new address and registered Republican, as well as 18-year olds or other people who hadn’t previously registered to vote signing up as members of the GOP.
Yet the survey of likely voters indicated that 53 percent of this surveyed view the president unfavorably, compared to 42 percent who see him favorably. This in a county that saw Trump defeat former President Joe Biden by a single point in 2024, after Biden carried it in 2020.
“It’s clear that there is some backlash against Trump and MAGA Republicans generally,” Ethan Smith, a founding partner at Upswing Research & Strategy, told POLITICO. “The survey also shows that we’re probably entering a period of Democratic enthusiasm. We can tell just based on response rates that Democrats are really eager to participate in the election.”
Upswing Research & Strategy conducted the poll on behalf of the Democratic PAC Bucks United. The same pollster surveyed the county last September with Trump viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 50 percent.
Upswing also polled the favorability of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro who came in at a plus-28 (55 percent favorable, 27 unfavorable). Among that total, nearly 1 in 4 GOP respondents viewed him favorably as well, indicating the challenge facing possible GOP challenger Stacy Garrity next year.
The survey also found that Joe Khan, the Democratic nominee for D.A. in Bucks County, led Republican incumbent Jennifer Schorn in the survey 49-43 percent with eight percent of likely voters undecided. Danny Ceisler, the Democratic contender for sheriff, was likewise ahead of GOP incumbent Fred Harran 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided.
The August poll of 501 likely voters in Bucks County was completed from Aug. 5 to 10, using calls to landlines and cell phones as well as text-to-Web. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Steve Ulrich is managing editor of Politics PA.
