Republicans, don’t fear 2026

Two weeks since the Bucks County Republicans had their hats handed to them, they’re still trying to figure out why they didn’t win. And why they were so wrong about their elevated expectations and a Republican sweep via the assumed popularity of Donald Trump, who narrowly won Bucks County, last year.

Some local analysts were quick to say 2025’s GOP losses here were a rejection of the Trump administration’s policies, ticket-splitting, and Republicans staying home. As usual, there were myriad explanations, with some finger-pointing and even a suggesting change at the top, but it will simmer down, as usual, and eyes will soon be on the 2026 midterms. Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick’s term in PA-01 is up next year and he’s likely facing a November challenge from Democratic Commissioner Bob Harvie.

For a different take on local politics, consult an opinion piece on this site earlier this week by the insightful Publius Pax titled “Welcome to post-persuasion Bucks County.” You will find an answer to the question we’ve been asking. How did a county that saw a Republican registration surge push the party to a 10,000-voter advantage and help deliver conservatives to state and national offices, collapse into double-digit losses just twelve months later?

What went wrong? Nothing, except a changing political climate — a louder, uglier, and unrepentant one. We noticed the anger and the energy among voters regarding national politics, including knowing the way voters feel translates into a referendum on the party in power.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Look at what AI came up with. What went wrong for the Republicans?

Candidate messaging and local issues. Democratic candidates like District Attorney-Elect Joe Khan and Sheriff-Elect Danny Ceisler focused on the “bread and butter” local issues such as child and environmental safety, public safety, and ending an immigration enforcement agreement that was a point of contention with some voters. This messaging resonated with voters. 

Independent and suburban voters. Bucks County has a large number of independent or moderate voters who can swing an election. These voters often split their tickets and can be swayed by specific candidates and their platforms rather than strict party loyalty. Polling indicates that many independent voters leaned Democratic in the 2025 races, but not as much in 2024. 

High voter turnout. Record-setting turnout for a municipal election in 2025, which reached nearly 50%, was a boon for Democrats, allowing their candidates to win even in many Republican majority precincts. 

Voter registration dynamics. While Republicans recently gained a slight edge in voter registration in 2024, election results indicate that registration does not always align with actual voting behavior in the county, as many voters remain willing to cross party lines.

And the best advice? The election is over and a loss is a learning experience, applicable well beyond the first week in November. 

Pat Wandling hosts Speak Your Piece weekdays at noon on WBCB 1490.