It’s still the economy
No one was fretting about the economy when online shoppers rang up $44.2 billion in a five-day shopping mega-spree that started on Thanksgiving, when consumers spent $6.4 billion online while the turkey roasted.
Before Thanksgiving, there were mixed expectations among retailers and analysts with some believing spending would vary slightly from 2024 — up or down. Instead, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend was a stunning surprise to most.
The five-day shopping stretch from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday was at least impressive, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) which reported that 202.9 million U.S. consumers shopped during the five-day period, including 129.5 million who shopped in stores — a 3% increase over 2024. And 134.9 million shopped online, including retailer websites and apps, which is a 9% increase over 2024.
The NRF also highlighted a 7.7% increase in consumer spending, the $44.2 billion online, which was on track to hit NRF’s 2025 estimates of $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion.
Additionally, Adobe Analytics also reported the 2025 holiday season is poised to be the first quarter trillion-dollar holiday shopping season. Adobe forecasted a record $253.4 billion will be spent online this holiday season (November 1 to December 31) up 5.3% year-on-year.
And the state of the economy is?
Going forward, small businesses are waiting for consumers to shop locally for the rest of the month. The good news is some analysts say about 40% of all planned gift-giving spending occurs from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday, which leaves 60% of holiday spending in play for small businesses that may have felt ignored by this year’s cyber-shoppers.
But what do these stunning increases in spending this month say to the average consumer about the lousy economy we’ve been hearing about? Could it mean we’re in for a change? It means good news to businesspeople who count on holiday spending for a successful year.
Massive online shopping does not strike fear in the hearts of small business owners — it’s a challenge.
Supporting the backbone of the economy is the urgent message from local Chambers of Commerce, specifically the 900-member Central Bucks Chamber of Commerce.
“Get into the holiday spirit” and continue to support local business, the backbone of the economy, said Chamber President and CEO Theresa Fera, discussing the surge in online shopping that has taken place this past week — with more to come.
“Our communities in the Doylestown and Newtown areas are always engaged and supportive of small business,” she said, adding that local shops are busy!
Fera also noted small retail owners keep up with the trends; many have websites and use various marketing techniques to stay competitive.
And a quick survey of businesses in Lower Bucks by the Lower Bucks Chamber of Commerce found agreement that much of the post-Thanksgiving gift buying will come to local retailers and other small community businesses in the coming weeks.
No worry about Mignoni Jewelry, a 78-year landmark in Bristol Borough, Bucks County, where the owners know their customers and the marketplace and do business as usual. While online buying can surpass in-store shopping, there are many consumers that favor the personal aspect of dealing with a small business in a town nearby.
Two customers in the Bristol jewelry/gift shop attested to the benefits of shopping close to home, such as seeing and touching the item or product they’re going to buy — plus getting personal service from local shop owners they know. “Amazon doesn’t gift wrap,” shouted Rosemarie Mignoni from the back of the store.
It’s important to note increased holiday spending in the last week followed months when the nation was bombarded with political campaigns and chatter about rising prices, the alleged sad state of the economy, and the current administration’s role. The economy was the focus in the political arena when Bill Clinton was running for president in 1992 as well.
James Carville, a strategist in the successful Clinton campaign against George H.W. Bush, famously said “it’s the economy stupid” in light of of the recession then occurring. The catchphrase was implemented in the campaign by Carville to urge his staff to focus on the economy.
Today, Carville is admonishing his fellow Democrats to forget the infighting and noise and focus on the economy. It’s the economy, stupid means the main concern of American voters is how the condition of the economy affects their their pocketbooks. It’s still relevant.
So how do we explain the wild and crazy spending this week that followed the drumbeat of a weakened economy and, of course, the unaffordability factor?
Here’s another thought: Could free spending and buying indicate confidence in the future, not fear? Or might it indicate trust that the government will fix the so-called ailing economy. After all, a socialist, Zohran Mamdani, won a mayoral race in “unaffordable” New York City on the dire state of the Big Apple’s economy — and his promises to fix it.
The government and today’s politicians know Carville was right, then and now. The state of the economy matters to everyone. And either the reality or the perception that we’re in deep trouble was the last-minute theme used by winning Democratic candidates.
Yes, grumpy Carville is right; it is the economy, “stupid.” But I choose to believe this season’s spending surge indicates optimism and confidence, so I’ll be buying for my loved ones, unafraid and looking toward a more robust economy in the new year. Cah-ching!
Pat Wandling hosts Speak Your Piece weekdays at noon on WBCB 1490.
