Inside Elections moves PA-01 from likely to lean Republican
The 1st Congressional District of Pennsylvania, comprising all of Bucks County and a sliver of Montgomery County, has long been a target of national Democrats hoping to flip the seat from Republican hands in one of the purplest districts in the country.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president, released its December rankings last week and gave Democrats more hope than in recent election cycles, moving the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
The PA-01 seat, presently held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-01), has been in the “likely or solid Republican” column since the 2018 contest was rated as a toss-up.
“Democrats had a strong Election Day in Bucks County last month, flipping offices the party hasn’t held since the 1800s,” the publication wrote. “That’s good news for likely Democratic nominee Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner and understated longtime local politician who cuts a different profile than the last several candidates to challenge Fitzpatrick… this race looks more competitive than it did earlier this year.”
Fitzpatrick, one of the three House Republicans in a district won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, was a critic of President Donald Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ and voted “no” on the amended final billafter casting an affirmative vote on the original House bill.
Since that day in July, Trump has announced his endorsement for nine of the 10 members of the Pennsylvania congressional delegation for reelection in 2026. You can easily guess the lone omission.
Democrats are hopeful that they can tie Fitzpatrick to unpopular Trump policies and create a lane for Harvie, the Bucks County commissioner, to unseat the five-term incumbent. But first, Harvie needs to survive a four-person primary that includes hopefuls Tracy Hunt, Rob Strickler, and Lucia Simonelli.
“Commissioner Bob Harvie’s campaign is building momentum every single day, and this rating change reflects that,” said Dan McCormick, Campaign Manager for Bob Harvie. “Bucks and Montgomery County voters sent a resounding message last month that they are fed up with the failed leadership we are seeing out of Washington, and Brian Fitzpatrick has failed to stand up for our community or do anything to make life more affordable. Voters are tired of Fitzpatrick’s charade and are ready to elect a new member of Congress that is a working class person who will fight hard for working class families – and that candidate is Bob Harvie.”
Fitzpatrick’s race joins vulnerable GOP Reps. Rob Bresnahan (PA-08) and Scott Perry (R-10) in the “lean Republican” category, while Lehigh Valley Republican Ryan Mackenzie sees his contest in the “toss-up” column.
- Solid Democrat (6). Boyle, PA-03 (open), Dean, Scanlon, Houlahan, Lee
- Likely Democrat (1). Deluzio
- Lean Democrat (0).
- Toss-Up (1). Mackenzie
- Lean Republican (3). Fitzpatrick, Bresnahan, Perry
- Likely Republican (0).
- Solid Republican (6). Meuser, Smucker, Joyce, Reschenthaler, Thompson, Kelly
Steve Ulrich is managing editor of Politics PA.
