Fitzpatrick No. 4 in Pennsylvania’s congressional vulnerability rankings (July 2025)

Election Day 2026 is still well over a year away, but it’s never too soon to start assembling our PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House.

For the ninth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. This is our first handicapping of the 2024 election cycle; we’ll update it periodically as the cycle progresses.

We begin the 2026 cycle with four seats in the “Vulnerable” category, which is our second highest after “Highly vulnerable.” The No. 1 most vulnerable on our list is four-term Republican Rep. Scott Perry, followed in descending order by fellow Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Brian Fitzpatrick.

The only Democrat on our list for now, Rep. Chris Deluzio, is in the next category down: “Potentially Vulnerable,” ranking No. 5.

Anyone in the delegation not listed among those five is currently considered safe for reelection.

Here’s our full rundown. Check back here for updates every few months.

HIGHLY VULNERABLE

No races

VULNERABLE

1. 10th District: Scott Perry (R)

Elected: 2018

Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties

2024 House result: Perry, 50.5%-49.3%

2024 presidential result: Trump, 52.03%-46.82%

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+3

Cash on hand through June 30: $1.2 million

Black: 10.7%

Latino: 10.9%

Asian: 5.0%

Median income: $78,636

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 36.3%

Median housing value: $258,900

Poverty rate: 10%

Perry occupies a seat that backed Donald Trump in 2024 by about five points, but the congressman ran about a point and a half behind Trump in the district, and he defeated Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson by barely more than a percentage point.

Perry is a hard-right lawmaker in a district that has become more purplish. Perry chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

In 2026, unlike 2024, Trump won’t be atop the ballot – and historically, the party that doesn’t control the White House typically tends to fare well in midterm elections. 

But perhaps the biggest factor making Perry No. 1 on our list is that Stelson is running again. Stelson is a former Republican who won a six-way primary in 2024 partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV. 

In the first 48 hours after announcing her 2026 candidacy, Stelson announced raising $500,000. She has the backing of key Democrats, including popular Gov. Josh Shapiro. That said, Republicans tout Perry’s best fundraising quarter for an off-year. This race should be hard-fought through Election Day.

2. 7th District: Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Elected: 2024

Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties

2024 House result: Mackenzie, 50.4%-49.4%

2024 presidential result: Trump, 51.07%-47.86%

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+1

Cash on hand through June 30: $1.2 million

Black: 5.5%

Latino: 21.3%

Asian: 3.4%

Median income: $79,206

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32.5%

Median housing value: $299,800

Poverty rate: 11.2%

Mackenzie, a former state representative, ran slightly behind Trump in this swingy district in 2024 as he ousted three-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild by one percentage point.

This narrow margin of victory has drawn three Democratic candidates into the race: Northampton County Executive and former Northampton County Council member Lamont McClure; former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, who resigned in protest over the Trump administration’s handling of the case involving New York City Mayor Eric Adams; and Carol Obando-Derstine, an engineer, educator, nonprofit executive and first-time candidate who was introduced by Wild at her campaign kickoff. 

The three Democrats have between $92,000 and $254,000 in the bank; while it’s still early in the cycle, each trails Mackenzie in fundraising at this point, and Republicans are cautiously optimistic that the Democratic primary will be messy. Democrats, meanwhile, hope to pin negative impacts from the passage of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” on Mackenzie, who voted for it. 

3. 8th District: Rob Bresnahan (R)

Elected: 2024

Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties

2024 House result: Bresnahan, 50.7%-49.1%

2024 presidential result: Trump, 53.85%-45.35%

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4

Cash on hand through June 30: $862,000

Black: 7.1%

Latino: 15.6%

Asian: 2.1%

Median income: $61,140

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 27.1%

Median housing value: $220,800

Poverty rate: 15.3%

Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan, a construction CEO before joining Congress, flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2024, ousting six-term Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in this blue-collar district. 

Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan voted for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” But he’s also faced some negative headlines for his stock trades as a member of Congress, even as he’s proposed banning lawmakers from trading stocks.

Before voting for Trump’s bill, Bresnahan sold shares of Centene Corp., a health care company that could be hurt by the bill’s policies on Medicaid. This is not an idle issue for his constituents: 27% of district residents rely on Medicaid, Politico reported. 

Earlier, in April, Bresnahan traded stocks of companies that could be hit by Trump’s tariffs.

Already, the liberal group Unrig Our Economy has launched a $1 Million ad campaign criticizing Bresnahan for his vote on Trump’s bill.

The key reason why we’re rating Bresnahan No. 3 behind Mackenzie is that no Democratic candidate has entered the race yet. Cartwright announced that he would not seek his old seat in 2026. Several other Democrats have been mentioned as possible candidates against Bresnahan: state Rep. Bridget Kosierowski; Pittston Mayor Mike Lombardo; state Sen. Marty Flynn; and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.

4. 1st District: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Elected: 2018

Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County

2024 House result: Fitzpatrick, 56.2%-43.4%

2024 presidential result: Harris, 49.67%-49.35%

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+1

Cash on hand through June 30: $6.5 million

Black: 3.4%

Latino: 6.5%

Asian: 6%

Median income: $108,039

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 44.3%

Median housing value: $447,700

Poverty rate: 6.5%

Fitzpatrick has been a white whale for Democrats: He’s a Republican, but he consistently wins reelection in a district that votes Democratic for president. In 2024, Fitzpatrick was one of only three Republicans to win in districts that backed Kamala Harris over Trump, along with Don Bacon of Nebraska (who has announced his retirement) and Mike Lawler of New York.

Can 2026 be the year Democrats finally defeat him? Fitzpatrick won by about 13 points in 2024, outrunning Trump in the district by a solid 6 points. But Democrats have a credentialed candidate for the 2026 race: Bob Harvie, who has been elected twice to the Bucks County Board of Commissioners and has served as its chair. Harvie reported having $195,000 in the bank at the end of June; he’ll need to up his fundraising game to compete not only against an incumbent but also place ads in the expensive Philadelphia media market.

Fitzpatrick was one of just two Republicans to vote against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with Thomas Massie of Kentucky. This might help him among crossover voters who backed Harris in 2024, but it could put him at risk among Trump supporters, with increased pressure for a primary challenger. 

POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE

5. 17th District: Chris Deluzio (D)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties

2024 House result: Deluzio, 53.8%-46.1%

2024 presidential result: Harris, 52.28%-46.77%

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+3

Cash on hand through June 30: $450,000

Black: 7%

Latino: 2.6%

Asian: 3.1%

Median income: $83,227

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 46.4%

Median housing value: $243,200

Poverty rate: 7.6%

Deluzio won his seat by a six-point margin in 2022, then won it by an impressive eight points over GOP state Rep. Rob Mercuri in 2024, running a point and a half ahead of Harris in the district. In theory, Deluzio’s swingy district could make him vulnerable, but he hasn’t left many openings for Republicans to exploit; no obvious GOP candidate has emerged; and the National Republican Congressional Committee has not listed the seat as a target for 2026, at least not yet. That’s why it ranks No. 5 on our list, in a lower category than the top four seats.

MINIMALLY VULNERABLE

No races

SPECIAL NOTE

One other district is worth mentioning, but it doesn’t rank on our list because there’s essentially no chance of a party flip: The 3rd District, where a competitive Democratic primary is on tap to succeed retiringDemocratic Rep. Dwight Evans. Harris won 88% of the vote in the district in 2024.

Louis Jacobson is chief correspondent for PolitiFact. His above analysis originally appeared in Politics PA.